Apple Inc. (AAPL) has an estimated DCF value of $225.25 (Base Case).
Compared with the market price of $347.19, the stock appears 35% overvalued.
The model discounts projected cash flows using the assumptions below.
View calculation →Solid: reported annual data. Dashed: source model assumptions, including partially reported forecast years. These are not full analyst financial estimates.
Reported and forecast periods are kept separate. Forecasts are model assumptions, not full analyst consensus.
| Model inputs | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow to Equity | 92.85B | 99.8B | 103.52B | 103.93B | 118.74B | 136.69B | 149.46B | 158.64B | 175.29B | 185B | 193.75B |
| Revenue | 365.82B | 394.33B | 383.29B | 391.04B | 416.16B | 483.7B | 534.78B | 575.56B | 645.86B | 689.53B | 725.51B |
| Net CapEx | -5.19B | -6M | 17.25B | 27.45B | 14.67B | 14.99B | 13.9B | 11.51B | 8.4B | 5.52B | 4.35B |
| Debt Ratio | 64.7% | 68.4% | 62.2% | 62.9% | 54.1% | 62.3% | 62.3% | 62.3% | 62.3% | 62.3% | 62.3% |
| Net Income | 94.68B | 99.8B | 97B | 93.74B | 112.01B | 131.03B | 144.22B | 154.3B | 172.13B | 182.92B | 192.11B |
| Net Margin | 25.9% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 24% | 26.9% | 27.1% | 27% | 26.8% | 26.7% | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Net CapEx Financed by Equity | -1.83B | -1.9M | 6.53B | 10.19B | 6.73B | 5.65B | 5.24B | 4.34B | 3.17B | 2.08B | 1.64B |
Reported revenue grew at a compound annual rate of 2020–2025: 8.7%. The model implies a compound annual revenue change of 2025–2031: 9.7%.
The model’s net margin for 2031 is 26.5%. The reported 2021–2025 average is 25.5%.
These comparisons use this model’s own annual series. Forecast periods can contain reported portions; they remain forecasts. They are not a separate Wall Street consensus or a judgment that the assumptions will be achieved.
It expresses a stream of future cash flows as a value today. A cash flow expected several years from now is discounted because waiting and business risk have a cost. The result depends on the cash flow definition and assumptions used in that model.
The model projects business performance, estimates the cash remaining for investors and discounts those amounts. A terminal value represents the years beyond the explicit forecast. Depending on the template, debt and other adjustments connect business value to equity value before the per-share calculation.
Small changes in growth, margins, discount rates or terminal assumptions can materially change the estimate. Read the bear, base and bull cases together and check whether their assumptions fit the business. Extra decimal places do not make a forecast more certain.
That difference indicates a discount under the selected assumptions. It does not identify a purchase date or guarantee a return. Read the financial statements, consider the risks and compare alternative scenarios before drawing a conclusion.
Valuations are estimates, not investment advice. Figures may use different source dates.
